The Effects of Climate Change on Oceanic Sonar Use in the Upper European Continental Shelf

Abstract

As the global effects of climate change become more known year by year, it becomes ever-more pertinent to examine the effects this may bring for every aspect of modern life we rely on. One topic of focus is that of multi-frequency sonar communication and navigational systems, which rely on well-established relationships relating to wave speed, signal intensity, and attenuation. We compiled data on oceanic temperature, acidity, and salinity in the Upper European Shelf, which includes the North Sea and Mediterranean Sea, from 2006 to 2072 using the CMIP5 future climate model in the RCP8.5 scenario. We calculate that the speed of sound in the northern European oceanic area will decrease by almost 18 m/s by 2072, with an average yearly decrease in sound speed by 0.37 m/s. The attenuation of sound through water will change year by year, calculated based on a higher-order polynomial regression dependent on the frequency of sonar used. The maximum operating ranges of active low-frequency, mid-frequency, and high-frequency sonar systems would theoretically change by +0.06%, -0.19%, and +0.71%, respectively per year, if no other factors are affected. Due to increased sound propagation, the ambient noise level of the ocean would also increase and have some counter-effect to the increased detection range however that increase in noise level was not quantitatively analyzed in this study.