Assessing Changes in Feed Security of the Québec Dairy Industry in 2050

Abstract

 Understanding the effects of climate change is central to assessing the resilience of the agricultural sector in Québec. The dairy industry is vulnerable as climate change alters yields for cattle feed grown on-farm. Québec dairy farmers have adopted various strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions on farms, incorporating sustainable agricultural practices such as improved waste and manure management, and altering cow diets to reduce enteric (digestive) methane production. The last of these practices --– altering cow diets that reduce enteric methane emissions --– is valuable, yet it introduces a tradeoff between emission reduction and climate adaptation. Indeed, diets that reduce methane emissions may require crops that are less resilient to future climate conditions, whereas climate-resilient feed crops may not offer the same methane-reduction benefits. In 2050, Québec dairy farmers may not be able to grow all feed crops on their land to support herd health and milk output, both metrics of feed security. Accordingly, this study assesses the regional feed security of the Québec dairy industry by modelling the impact of crop yield change in two climate scenarios and with three diet compositions in 2050. Results show that in 2050, methane-reducing corn-heavy diets will require more cropland than hay- or soy-based diets, presenting an environmental tradeoff between land use and methane emissions. The analysis reveals high projected intraprovincial variability in feed security, with Eastern Québec predicted to be more feed secure than Southwestern Québec. The importance of a sustainable and self-sufficient dairy industry is increasingly important in the face of climate change. More broadly, this research aims to identify potential approaches for farmers to support future successful dairy operations.